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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Presidential Polls Take Wild Ride

President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney held their first debate in Denver in October. (AP)

The latest presidential polls have left voters and pundits scratching their heads. A three-day Gallup tracking poll released Monday morning showed Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama were tied. But a seven-day tracking poll that Gallup released Monday afternoon showed Obama with a 5-point lead. A Rasmussen poll showed a tie between the candidates. By late afternoon a new Pew Center poll put Romney up by 4 percent.

Meanwhile, in the Massachusetts Senate race, a WBUR poll out today shows Republican Scott Brown in the lead, while another poll shows Democrat Elizabeth Warren winning.

The New York Post’s John Podhoretz calls yesterday “the day the political polling died.” Nate Silver of the New York Times urges voters to “take the polls in stride,” including the Pew poll showing Romney with a 4-point post-debate lead over Obama.

Guest:

  • Charlie Mahtesian, national politics editor for Politico

Please follow our community rules when engaging in comment discussion on this site.
  • Elizabeth

    I watched the debate and came away feeling that both candidates did an equally good job in presenting thier views.  Somehow this has been interpreted as Obama’s loss.  Not so, for me. 
    Romney and the Republicans seem to be emulating President Obama’s style & grace in his communication manner and debate temperament.   It’s been interesting to watch.  Obama is a natural in raising the bar.   
    ElizabethElverson, PA
    Elverson, PA

    • http://twitter.com/mchild_gene Mike Childress

      U must have gotten your free phone also…  I voted for him last time, but NObama NOmore.  He lied to the American people and U know it.
      1.  cutting the debt in half   — liar
      2.  killing of an ambassador in Lybia due to a movie clip — liar
      3.  “you didnt build that”  – liar
      4.  create jobs — liar  (unemployment among african americans is at all time high 13%.)
      5.  Obamacare is necessary — liar  (this is a disaster where the medical docs will stop practicing altogether)

      I wont drink the kool aid again.  Think hard before you pull that voting lever, as it may be your future as an American…  of what was…

      • Liber8Me

        You’re an independent?  Yeah, sure you are. Lol.

        • http://twitter.com/mchild_gene Mike Childress

          Just remember he gave you the BIRD  today on one of his NObama ads here in Ohio.  Not to mention his lies about Ambassador Stephens.  Shame on him for that one.
          Keep drinkin’ the kool aid, just dont drop your free phone in it.

          • tired of the lies

            George Bush gave a ten year, 1.5 trillion tax cut that favors the wealthy claiming this would create jobs, well where the hell are the jobs??!  Has anyone in the republican party even mentioned 
            the last republican president??? Guess why!!!

      • http://www.facebook.com/sean.elstins Sean Elstins

         you didn’t vote for obama, that is obvious

        • http://twitter.com/mchild_gene Mike Childress

          now ur calling me a liar,  boy ur on a roll today.   Hope ur employed, if not i can get u a free Obamaphone……. 

      • Vanessa D

        Romney isn’t a liar??? Oh please.
        Go back over his spoken views for the past year…or more, preferably, and see how his position statements change according to whichever group or audience he is adressing. 

        • http://twitter.com/mchild_gene Mike Childress

          Remember Vanessa D
          Obama gave you the BIRD today here in OHio.  Big bird.  Wow, he flies to las vegas when Ambassador Stephens is killed due to a video??? seriously……  and then he plays Sesame Street on one of his ads…
          Can’t wait until PUTIN hears that one…..

      • tobzzz

        You’ve been greatly fooled by Romney its just too sad… If you think Obama is the bigger liar, you clearly……CLEARLY have been so fooled its unbelievable.. 

      • truth teller

        Mike Childress is lying.  He’s clearly trolling, on behalf of Romney.  He never voted for Obama!  He’s pushing ALL of the right wing talking points way too perfectly.   Are you really all so naive that you’d believe his little act?  Puleeze.  

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/GGHNYPK4GNCRYZLXWVZ447WHJM Plznnn

    Romney showed the world what an excellent leader he will be, knowledgeable, informed, experienced with our economic issues, good on his feet, and with much integrity.   I feel very comfortable having Romney & Ryan  running this country according to the People, not to the whims of someone wanting to fundamentally transform America into something that we don’t want.   Without the biased mainstream-media and false & negative ads, Romney showed clearly to us why he will be a great President, and how Obama isn’t.

  • http://twitter.com/mchild_gene Mike Childress

    I, was confused as I voted for Obama in the last election b/c I am an independent. However, as I have seen this nation evolve over the past 4 years I am really disturbed. I feel as though I have been lied to over and over again.. Many times I question “How did I get fooled so badly by this president?” Four years ago, I was excited when I heard him speak, I supported him and I admit I did drink the kool aid of Obama’s change. 
    Now I look back again and I hate that I ever fell into his trap of lies:
    1. He didn’t cut the deficit in half as he promised.
    2. Spreading the wealth- really why am I worse off now?
    3. the “you didnt build that” statement really was bad to say to Americans
    4. The lying over the death of our ambassador in Lybia- said it was a movie– really it just happened to be 9/11……..
    5. What does he mean when he tells the Russian premier at a oval office meeting “Tell Putin my hands are tied, but when I get re-elected, then I can do more”……. WHAT in the world does he mean??
    6. The debt is growing so fast that our future generations wont succeed, if he doesnt stop the spending, $6 Trillion dollars spent.

    • CJ

       Mike, Part of the reason is that the press did not do its job by properly vetting Obama. Had that been the case, you would not have voted for him. Sadly the press still protects him. Not only did our country suffer all the things you mentioned plus more, we lost a free press that doesn’t hold BOTH candidates to the fire. It’s also why Obama looked so bad in the debate against Romney. Nobody ever questioned him, his advisors, the press, no one. Now we’re stuck with this big mess.

      • http://twitter.com/mchild_gene Mike Childress

        u r correct CJ.  I was a fool last election and am pretty embarrased by having to admit it.  I am sorry that I voted for Obama last time. I wont be fooled again.

        • truth teller

          You never voted for Obama, you right wing faker.  Get real.  Your pro-Romney/anti-Obama talking points are way too rehearsed.   You Republicans must think that we’re all as dumb as you are.  

    • tobzzzz

      Let me tell you something, Romney will NOT do quarter of what he says he will do. Speaking about things and actually being in the position to speak about things are 2 different things. Yes, Obama has messed up with some of his promises, but he
       hasnt completely messed up. When i watched his race during the last election, I KNEW he would not be capable of fulfilling all his promises but he has saved the motor industries (think about how terrible the country will be with the collapse of the motor industries), he actually provided….. regained the nation with 4.5 million new jobs and i’d reiterate, he never ever guaranteed that jobs wouldnt be lost….in this economy, u win some, u loose some…..he also ended the war he promised to end…..families are celebrating the survival of their sons out there who were in the war….bin laden died in his term…. financial crisis is over… if u look at the bigger picture, he has tried as a president within 4 years to get america moving again…..whilst it took 8 years to destroy. so stay there and be thinking of voting for romney who intends to slowly eliminate the current Medicare system and create a voucher based program that WOULD NOT be an advantage for U.S. citizens. This so called plan would be much more expensive than having coverage under an expanded Medicare program. What is wrong with this program you ask…. Why yes thanks for asking…. the problem is that it will allow top U.S. insurance companies to continue monopolistic practices like they have in the past. This will ultimately harm ‘US’…’YOU’ consumers with higher prices. it will even harm physicians by getting substantially underpaid, losing millions of dollars. The only people that will profit from this are the top insurance companies…….talk about higher debt too. Atleast obamacare is set towards providing insurance for EVERYONE. TBH this economy is not going to be best with ANY of the presidential candidates. What u have to look for is who you’ll benefit from most and that is undoubtedly OBAMA!!! for your own sake. If romney wins, I tell you, YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN! 

      • Midprof

        Whats wrong with doing things on your own? Are you one of those leaches that have to live off people like me paying for all your low cost rentals, food stamps, and anything else you can suck out of our government…pull up your bootstraps and make your own success in your life and quite whinning…my gosh

    • truth teller

      Mike Childress is lying.  He’s clearly trolling, on behalf of the Romney campaign.  He never voted for Obama!  He’s pushing ALL of the right wing “anti-Obama” talking points way too perfectly.  Typical.  Are you really all so naive that you’d believe his little act?   Puleeze.  Romney is a liar and a chameleon; why any sane person would vote for him,  I will NEVER understand.  

      • Bill

        Hi Truth Teller,
        It is sad that common courtesey seems to go out of the window in modern political discussions here in the United States, I do not care if you agree with Mike Childress or not, and I will personally defend your absolute right to disagree with him, but can this not be done politely, and with fact and reference, I hope that we are all allowed an opinion, and I hope that we can all express it with consideration for others.

        • Midprof

          Bill, people like “Truth Teller”, how Ironic that name is… is  mad at anyone who dont vote Obama and the only ammo they have is to call everyone liars and dirty vial names…that is the division this man Obama has created… and its all by design! The more people like the Truth Teller that receive government assitance and other free handouts will vote for this Obama guy…
          I built my business, can Obama even say he’s even been in business? And Im sure the Truth Teller has no idea about how businesses create jobs…I’ve never seen a poor person create a job?

  • FredFilopek

    Sure mike Childress you voted for Obama. I showed my neighbor your post and we all had a good laugh vote for mitt buddy and enjoy your voucher .Just don’t get sick. If you do die quickly.

    • http://twitter.com/mchild_gene Mike Childress

      Obaa wroteObmamasdfsdgds=gadasd and endoes thialskdhOb……. u are right…….. He caOBmamasdfan blow more $$$ than one can imagine. This advertisement is a joke to all who watch it. It starts off talking about crooks- for a minute I thought those were Obama’s cabinet team members, or maybe they used to be…. then he goes to a bird – how childish.
      We have a dead ambassador with nothing coming from Obamas mouth of what happened otget ready,,  a surprise is coming ur way on NOv. 6th.   Lie are free and ur guy has a shed full of the.m. and oh yeah,  I did vote for ur boy last time- no way this time.her aoidghoaidhogiahsdopg a video caused it………. the middle east hates America, people are without jobs (african americans lead with 13% unemployment), he wants to push Obamacare to whomever will listen to it —— and all OBama can do is give us all the BIRD!!!!!Obama wrote and endorses this……… u are right…….. He can blow more $$$ than one can imagine. This advertisement is a joke to all who watch it. It starts off talking about crooks- for a minute I thought those were Obama’s cabinet team members, or maybe they used to be…. then he goes to a bird – how childish.We have a dead ambassador with nothing coming from Obamas mouth of what happened other than a video caused it………. the middle east hates America, people are without jobs (african ameObama wrote and endorses this……… u are right…….. He can blow more $$$ than one can imagine. This advertisement is a joke to all who watch it. It starts off talking about crooks- for a minute I thought those were Obama’s cabinet team members, or maybe they used to be…. then he goes to a bird – how childish.We have a dead ambassador with nothing coming from Obamas mouth of what happened other than a video caused it………. the middle east hates America, people are without jobs (african americans lead with 13% unemployment), he wants to push Obamacare to whomever will listen to it —— and all OBama can do is give us all the BIRD!!!!!Obama wrote and endorses this……… u are right…….. He can blow more $$$ than one can imagine. This advertisement is a joke to all who watch it. It starts off talking about crooks- for a minute I thought those were Obama’s cabinet team members, or maybe they used to be…. then he goes to a bird – how childish.We have a dead ambassador with nothing coming from Obamas mouth of what happened other than a video caused it………. the middle east hates America, people are without jobs (african americans lead with 13% unemployment), he wants to push Obamacare to whomever will listen to it —— and all OBama can do is give us all the BIRD!!!!!ricans lead with 13% unemployment), he wants to push Obamacare to whomever will listen to it —— and all OBama can do is give us all the BIRD!!!!!

      • Vanessa D

        Gee Mike, you’re beginning to lose control. You can no longer disguise the fact that your comments are originating in a deep-seated personal hatred for Obama. Snap out of it.

        • Bill

          No matter how you slice it, President Obama has a problem defending his record.  I have no brief for Romney but anyone who plays golf for over 20% of his time is not doing the job.  President Obama has attended less than 30% of the national security briefings that are an essential part of his job function and it is hardly suprising that the results of his inattention are reflected in the security of our national representatives.  There are a lot of arguments about Obamacare – it has some good things, and some bad like any other legislation.  The legistlation could be improved to something workable but this radical healthcare overhaul was done at the wrong time, attention should have been paid to the economy, and job creation.
          Someone commented about the saving of car-workers jobs in the mid west, this is economic nonesense, no jobs were saved – the companies in trouble should have gone into receivership to be properly restructured, “saving” the car industry was simply a political strategy.
          All in all, the American public deserves better than either candidate currently on offer, and both parties would benefit from a radical move to the center away from some of the ridiculous and extreme views (and membership) that each holds so dear.  The current lord mayor of London (Boris Johnson) is no intellectual giant, but he could run the US better than either Mr Romney or President Obama, and we would all have an entertaining time watching him.

          • Vanessa D

            Bill, I agree with some of your points on this, and I never said I thought Obama is perfect and has no flaws or mistakes so far. In fact, most presidents, if not all, have made promises they were unable to keep, for all sorts of reasons.  Like so many others who voted for Obama, I have been deeply disappointed in some ways. On the other hand, given what the Republican party has become, I can’t even consider voting for the Romney/Ryan ticket. In my view, it’s time to dump the two-party system. Wouldn’t it be wonderful to hear the views of a third-party (or more?) candidate during the debates! In fact, NPR recently ran a very brief “debate” between the Libertarian candidate and the Green Party candidate, which I found extremely interesting.  That was just a nod to them, to be sure, but I suppose a nod is better than nothing

  • FredFilopek

    That’s pretty funny mike thanks for the laughs.

  • Robin Ferruggia

    There’s a lot of behind the scenes manipulation going on by the super wealthy. They have these tiny publications with reporters who have no idea that journalism is about facts and not about assumptions trying to create panic with tales like “Obama crushed!” “Obama pulling out of presidential race!” and other crackpot eye-catching but ludicrous headlines reminiscent of the slop you get from tabloids in the checkout line at the supermarket like “Dog-headed boy from Venus lands on earth!”  So anyway you have to pay to get your site the first on the list when something is googled, so the first things people see are these moronic headlines. These things then influence people who take polls later. That’s how the game is played, so it appears something is happening in the polls that really is not. People are very confused in this election, the sociopaths in the GOP are very skilled liars and manipulators, so they turn to the polls to see what others are going to vote. Polls are useful because people are like sheep, they’ll vote for someone if they think others are voting for them. A really clear explanation of what’s happening in the polls can be found in reputable publications, like the NY Times which has this very helpful article today: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/oct-8-a-great-poll-for-romney-in-perspective/. As for Romney, he may have been declared a winner in the first debate and gotten a bump from it, but I think the con game he used to get it is more interesting. Romney exposed here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/04/1139926/-Romney-Won-Using-a-Debate-Technique-Called-the-Gish-Gallop

  • Peter

    Just so you get perspective:  16 trillion is the amount of seconds in 507 thousand years. It is easy to figure out.

    16 trillion divided by (60x60x24x365)

  • FredFilopek

    That was a short lived bump for mitt righties . Today’s tracking polls oct 10 . Rasmussan has Obama down by 1 . Gallup has them tied. Mitts going to need more than that. Wait till Biden dismembers Ryan tomorrow. Ryan will have all the time he needs to explain his budget . I can’t wait.

  • The_Super

    Take your pick. Who would be eaasier to protest into social change?

    Obama?

    or

    Romney?

    Take your pick. But I remember a great amount of social change came when the people demanded change under a Democratic President.

    Good luck telling Romney what to do.

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Robin Young and Jeremy Hobson host Here & Now, a live two-hour production of NPR and WBUR Boston.

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