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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Contested GOP Convention Possible, Just Not Likely

Balloons fall as Republican presidential nominee John McCain  and his family at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., in September, 2008. (AP)

Balloons fall as Republican presidential nominee John McCain and his family at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., in September 2008. (AP)

Could someone — currently not in the Republican contest for the presidential nomination — jump into the race now?

“It’s unlikely,” says political scientist Jonathan Bernstein. Bernstein says it’s too late now to get on the ballots in the states that have their primaries late in the season.

Bernstein says conventions are self-governing and so delegates can do anything they want when they meet this summer in Florida. “If we had a situation where Romney had 40 percent, Santorum had 40 percent of the delegates, and Paul had 20 percent of the delegates — real deadlock — and they took vote after vote and no one was budging, and there was some interest in ‘well maybe we get these candidates to drop out and a new one to come in.’ It would be dangerous business to try that, but someone might try that.”


  • Jonathan Bernstein, political scientist and writer

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  • Tomlip_1

    Absolutly there is going to be a contested convention.

    Total Delegates (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, CO, ME)

    Romney: 93 (6, 7, 2, 50, 14, 2, 7, 5)

    Paul: 82 (13, 3, 0, 0, 5, 28, 17, 16)

    Gingrich: 29 (0, 0, 23, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0)

    Santorum: 25 (6, 0, 0, 0, 3, 7, 9, 0)

    Unpledged: 14 (3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3, 3)
    *Unpledged includes Huntsman’s delegates in NH as well as unbound party leader delegates in certain states.

  • Mike Grass

    In 1940, three candidates campaigned for the GOP nomination: Senator Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan, New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, and Ohio Senator Robert Taft.  None of the three candidates were able to get enough votes to be nominated at the GOP Convention in Philadelphia.  So the convention turned to dark horse, Wendall Willkie. Willkie was their man. He ran against FDR and got his brains beat out! Could this happen again in 2012?  Four GOP hopefuls come to Tampa and no one has enough delegates to get the nomination,  so the GOP nominates another Wendall Willkie.  Could be!

  • Westiegal17

    If it really does come down to the “wire” in choosing the Presidential candidate..then WHEN would there be a VP candidate chosen? would this be the first convention in my memory where the likely nominee DOES NOT have his running mate there to make a speech, etc?

  • Stan

    As I posted yesterday at another article the following:

    It was reported in Jan. that Henry Kissinger on a visit to China he promised that Jeb Bush would be the man selected as the “consensus candidate”. Kissinger spoke about how US elections are rigged.The Chinese expressed to Old Henry that they like the Bush Family.So in about 6 months folks we will see what comes down the line.Is all of the current campaigning nothing more than window dressing and a big smokescreen to the real issues of the day?Another rigged election wouldn’t surprise me.I can’t imagine that the American Sheeples are ready for yet another member of the Bush Crime, Drug and Fraud Family. But this is America where apathy and ignorance rules.

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Robin Young and Jeremy Hobson host Here & Now, a live two-hour production of NPR and WBUR Boston.

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